Curtis R. Alexander authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.
Progress in NOAA hourly-updated model forecasting for renewable energy guidance
NOAA has made rapid progress in the last year toward improved hourly-updated model forecasts over the lower 48 United States, significant to meet requirements for guidance for 20-150m wind and solar forecasts. This progress includes an improved version of the 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), now covering this entire CONUS domain, with b...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Verification methods for convection-allowing models (CAMs) should consider the finescale spatial and temporal detail provided by CAMs, and including both neighborhood and object-based methods can account for displaced features that may still provide useful information. This work explores both contingency table–based verification techniques and o...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
Improvements to Lake-Effect Snow Forecasts Using a One-Way Air–Lake Model Coupling Approach
Lake-effect convective snowstorms frequently produce high-impact, hazardous winter weather conditions downwind of the North American Great Lakes. During lake-effect snow events, the lake surfaces can cool rapidly, and in some cases, notable development of ice cover occurs. Such rapid changes in the lake-surface conditions are not accounted for i...
Representing shallow cumulus in numerical weather prediction and climate models is a significant challenge. Misrepresenting these subgrid-scale clouds can result in large errors in the downwelling shortwave radiative flux at surface, resulting in large errors in the surface temperature that results in feedbacks into the accuracy of the thermodyn...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) assimilates radar reflectivity information in order to skillfully forecast convection. This assimilation is done using an empirical relationship between reflectivity and latent heat release from hydrometeor condensation and freezing to update the temperature tendency field. The temperature tendency field ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA
The Bay Area Flood Protection Association has just recently begun funding the Physical Sciences Division and Global Systems Division (GSD) of NOAA’s Earth System Research Lab (NOAA-ESRL), as well as the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), to design and build a specialized nowcast / forecast system for the 9 Californ...
Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA