Zoltan Toth

Publications

Corresponding Articles: 13

Zoltan Toth authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.

An Examination of the Potential Aviation Application of High-Resolution Convective Resolving Models Initialized with LAPS and STMAS

High-resolution models that are able to explicitly resolve convection have the potential to greatly aid forecasting for aviation concerns, where thunderstorms can have a huge impact. Current high-confidence thunderstorm forecasts are generally restricted to the range covered by extrapolation of a given thunderstorm complex, which can extend pred...

Convective Initiation using Diabatic Local Analysis and Prediction System and Weather Research, Forecasting Model

Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts over North America to Cycling of Initial Conditions

A comparison of several analysis schemes in their ability to diagnose boundaries

There have been a number of recent additions and changes to analysis schemes available or potentially available to operational forecasters. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) has been available on AWIPS at 10 km horizontal grid resolution since the late 1980s, but is now run at some National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Of...

Improving cyclone warning Case study: Philippines

Information for decision making: Weather: Typhoon Lupit

Assessing the utility of several analysis schemes for diagnosing precursor signals for convective initiation and non-supercell tornadogenesis along boundaries

Although numerical models continue to advance with increasing horizontal grid resolution sufficient to begin to resolve convective storms, convective initiation remains a difficult short-term forecast problem. And determining whether the convection that does initiate will produce a severe storm with the development of a non-supercell tornado is ...

Development of a New Precipitation Dataset for Model Downscaling and Bias Correction

Bias correction and downscaling of forecast products, such as temperature and wind, of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) and the North America Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) have demonstrated benefit in improving the forecast. The application of the same procedure to precipitation is hindered by the lack of a satisfying pre...

Some Characteristics of GEFS Stochastic Perturbations

A Stochastic Perturbation Scheme (SPS) will be implemented into the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) in 2009. The scheme represents the uncertainty associated with the forecast model itself by adding stochastic terms, known as Stochastic Perturbations (SP), to the tendencies of a...

Pseudo-precipitation: a continuous variable for statistical post-processing

Some of the atmospheric processes leading to the formation of precipitation are highly nonlinear. This is reflected in the spatially and temporally discontinuous and highly variable nature of precipitation. Discontinuity and nonlinearity have their challenges not only in numerical modeling in terms of difficulties in tangent linear and adjoint m...

A Twenty-First-Century California Observing Network for Monitoring Extreme Weather Events

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projec...

Institution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - NOAA

Visualization, Evaluation, and Improvement of nwp-based Cloud Analyses and Forecasts

From its synoptic-scale origins, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) expanded to address both larger (coupled global climate system) and finer scale (nowcasting) forecasting. In particular, great strides have been made in the use of radar and other observations for the initialization of convective systems in their precipitating phase. This led...

Partition of Forecast Error into Positional and Structural Components

Weather manifests in spatiotemporally coherent structures. Weather forecasts hence are affected by both positional and structural or amplitude errors. This has been long recognized by practicing forecasters (cf., e.g., Tropical Cyclone track and intensity errors). Despite the emergence in recent decades of various objective methods for the diagn...